Solving The Cubs' Position Player Puzzle

By David Kaplan:

With Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel now pitching for the Oakland A’s, the Cubs have turned their focus to what their roster will look like in 2015 and beyond.  Which prospects will be a part of the Cubs future and what veteran free agents will be added over the next couple of winters?

Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo have had outstanding bounce back campaigns after subpar 2013 seasons that saw them both struggle offensively. Arismendy Alcantara has had an excellent first week in his big league career and based on his minor league track record could be a keeper at either second base or more likely in center field at the start of next season.

Who then is added to the roster that gives the Cubs a core of players to build around and to rely on for the next several seasons? Let’s assume that Kris Bryant and Javier Baez both are on the big league club by mid-May 2015. While Bryant was drafted as a third baseman and would prefer to stay at that spot, I don’t believe that his long term future is at the hot corner. 

After talking with multiple scouts and making a trip to Des Moines to watch him play myself, I see Bryant in right field. He has a plus arm and solid mobility but I just believe that his size (6'-5") will make it tough on him to make all of the necessary plays that a major league third baseman must make with regularity. Offensively, Bryant should be one of the key forces in the Cubs lineup for many seasons as he should hit for power as well as average and on base percentage.

Baez is an offensive force with outstanding power and bat speed and while he could easily translate into a 35-40 HR guy in the big leagues he could also be a 150+ strikeout player as well. I expect him to get bigger and stronger as he continues to develop but that increased size and strength will push him to either second or third base according to the scouts I have spoken with.  He does not possess great bat discipline which will cause him some problems at the major league level so you could be looking at a big HR and high strikeout player with a very low OBP.  If that happens how will that mesh with the philosophy of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer? In fact, I don’t believe that Epstein, Hoyer and Jason McLeod would have drafted Baez had they been running the Cubs during the 2011 draft.

Addison Russell is ranked among the top prospects in all of baseball in every scouting report that I have read. He is an elite bat who should be an impact player once he reaches the big leagues. Will he stay at shortstop is the question that most scouts have about him. “I’m not sure Russell stays at short because he will get bigger and stronger but I can tell you this. His bat will play at the major league level. Offensively he will be outstanding,” an American league scout told me.

[ALSO: Bryant in national spotlight at Futures Game]

Many fans want to see Kris Bryant on the big league club right now but I don’t see any scenario where Bryant is in the big leagues any sooner than late April of 2015. Why would you start to burn his service time now? To have two months of him on a team that is going nowhere? As for next Opening Day I don’t see any way that Bryant makes the team because if you keep him in the minor leagues for just a few weeks you get him for 5 months of the 2015 season and the next 6 seasons.

Let’s say that again. You get Kris Bryant for 5 months of the 2015 season and the next 6 seasons if he doesn’t come up until late April or early May. That is smart business. He will need some time to adjust to a new position if he moves to the outfield plus why not wait until the first month of cold weather has passed? Also, he will not hit free agency until after his age 29 season because he would fall short in service time in his 6^th big league campaign. That would give him another season in a Cubs uniform when the team should be very good. Would you rather have Kris Bryant now or next April or would you rather have Kris Bryant at age 29 when the team should be a contender? That question should be very easy to answer.

As for Baez, he still has a lot of work to do both offensively and defensively including a position switch to either second or third base in the very near future. I fully expect him to begin playing second base at Class-AAA Iowa very soon so that when he is called up he will have experience at his new position. Baez still needs work in grinding at bats and not chasing bad pitches or trying to hit every ball as far as he can. His tools are off the charts and he could be a major offensive force for a long time but he will also have high strikeout numbers and possibly a low OBP which will need to be improved upon.

As for a glimpse into the future, I see Alcantara in center field on Opening Day 2015 and both Bryant and Baez not in the big leagues until late April or early May 2015. I also fully expect the Cubs to have a very active winter after the 2014 season as they look to have a young but exciting 2015 team. However, the club will need to add some veteran presence to have players that can help nurture all of the prospects that will be playing important roles. I see 2016 as the season the team finally moves into contention in the NL Central when the younger players will have some experience under their belts and the veterans such as Rizzo and Castro should be in the prime of their careers. As for having a legitimate chance to have a run of sustained success I don’t see that happening until 2017 when the club should be positioned for a very good run of contending.

Decision Part 2: LeBron Jumps Heat, NBA, Joins Marvel Studios

In a much-awaited but surprise decision, LeBron James announced that he will neither be returning to the Miami Heat nor signing with another NBA team, instead choosing to join the wildly successful Marvel Studios movie franchise.

"I have enjoyed my time with the Miami Heat and the NBA," James said to a mostly stunned press room at a loss for questions to ask at the news. "The opportunity to bring my talents to the big screen is the best business decision for me and my family."

Writer/director Joss Wheedon, the creative force of 2012's smash hit "The Avengers," confirmed that plans are in the works to develop and cast a new character called Monarch into its upcoming sequel "The Avengers: Age of Ultron" due out in 2015.

"As of now, Monarch will likely be a muscular butterfly-esque character who can fly and shoot things. We're still working out the details, but he will be awesome." Wheedon explained. More succinctly on Twitter: "holy crap we got LEBRON JAMES y'all! #monarchrules #sequelsdontsuck"

The international exposure, shorter work hours, and reduced bodily stress contributed heavily to James' decision. He expects to use the extra free time to expand his endorsement portfolio, which dwarfs his NBA salary on a per-hour basis. He will also reportedly earn $20 million for "Ultron."

Pat Riley, general manager of the Miami Heat, checked into a mental rehabilitation facility last evening after surviving a series of severe strokes in the wake of the news.

Appealing To The Nobler Motives

"Appeal to the nobler motives." - Carnegie

One of my tasks as condo association bookkeeper is to collect special assessments for major property repairs. This afternoon a resident protested a $1,700 payment due "without her consent." Agreeably, no one likes to be governed without consent. In this case, there's clear legal basis for the board's right to make needed repairs and charge for them at their discretion (or in this case, as supported by the Town of Normal as well). But the point is that we are all on the same team. Sometimes it's unclear what that team is, and sometimes it's clear but gets lost in emotions. When I worked at State Farm there were many cases as supervisor where our unit goal was worth focusing on, whenever a situation started to feel like a personal matter. There is almost always a greater good that we both share. The challenge is to keep it in front of us, rather than our own egos. In Shrek, my goal is to be the best King/Pied Piper that I can, however little it adds to the background.

Close Shaves: The Week In Thanks

Summer is undoubtedly here. Every... single... morning this week I was able to jump into our outdoor pool for a morning lap swim under warm and usually sunny skies. The water's been 74-80 degrees and the outdoor temperature's been warmer than that, without rain. It's an ideal combination where the water helps cool me off while I'm pumping the heart rate at 120 bpm.

Our carport renovation project is going well on the financial end. Except for one or two unexpected stragglers, everyone's paid whom we expected to. We have more than enough money to start the project.

Under the random category: I'm thankful for the invention of razors. I watched a movie where a man was imprisoned for years. His beard looked rough but decent; mine would probably make me the favorite in a death match with a porcupine.

On this 4th of July week, it's timely to reflect on how many, many people have sacrificed for this country's freedoms. A sense of entitlement is always a gateway to unhappiness, but in this case it's totally out of bounds. We are extremely lucky to live in the security of the United States.

Shrek is growing daily! It's going to be a funny show. Even if we had opening night tonight, it would be worth a price of admission... some predictable costume and timing mishaps just add to the fun. But we will iron them out in the next few days.

Fantasy baseball is cruising steadily. I'm in 3rd to 5th place in all leagues. I don't foresee any championships this summer at this point, but I do see that 5th place climbing higher.

I watched a documentary about cults yesterday (my version of summer reading). I am so glad I did not grow up in a cult! Even if I wasn't burned to a crisp, or poisoned with Kool-Aid, just the opportunities, perspective and maturity I would have missed out on. Geez. If it's possible to convince college-educated people that a person is Jesus Christ, then surely I can convince more people to be tutored by me in math! Maybe I just need to rant more. Or grow that facial hair after all.

We watched Jersey Boys, the movie about high-pitched singer Frankie Valli. I grew up listening to his music. I consider myself lucky for that.

During rehearsal last week I got some counsel from a couple theater friends about my root canal situation. They gave me great advice that has already led me down the road to a successful surgery. One more reason why theater rocks, and people ought to get out and make new friends.

I'm grateful for Jennifer Stevens' ongoing health of baby Liliana.

Finally, we continue to be blessed by Cupcake's growing personality. She seems to really enjoy car travel, which makes things fun and easier. She's getting more patient with wearing a harness. Which is a good thing, because last week she snapped out of her leash and, by grace of God, raced toward the back of our property rather than toward the street. My week could've had tragedy if not for that stroke of luck.

Why Frowns Are Fattening

Research shows that a bad mood may lead to bad diet decisions. According to the study, the reason for this may be evolutionary: Negative emotions signal a problem and trigger a desire for an immediate solution that benefits you no, with a disregard for the furutre. If you’re feeling blue before a meal, think about something positive and future-focused (but mundane) that doesn’t cause wory or stress. An example: Imagine what cars might look like in 50 years.

Rokey Photos

A couple pics of the hosts of Dena's family reunion that we attended while in San Diego:

LifeTeen Band Loses Bassist, Fills Gap

The Epiphany Catholic Church LifeTeen contemporary worship band lost a key member but quickly took steps toward recovery on Sunday.

Tim Burns, bass guitar player for over six years with LifeTeen, moves to California following the July 4 holiday.

"This is a move that puts Tim closer to his daughters and family," Burns' agent explained while Tim snacked at Emack & Bolio's ice cream shop. "The opportunity was right; he'll miss his many friendships here."

"Tim once huddled us up, to point out how meaningful it is to welcome visitors around us with a handshake," vocalist Joe McDonald noted. "Ever since then I've made it a point to reach out to new faces when I see them during Mass. So that part of Tim will always be here with us."

L to R: LifeTeen guitarist Leroy Janke, drummer Doug Micklich, vocalist Shelby Miller, guitarist Tim Burns, vocalist Joe McDonald, sound technician/guitarist Mike Lieder, utilityman Jackson Stevens, vocalist Jennifer Stevens, utilitywoman Liliana Stevens (beneath pink dress), guitarist/vocalist Sean Stevens

Strategic planning for Burns' departure ensures that LifeTeen will continue to run smoothly.

Mike Lieder will slide from sound technician into the bass guitar role.

Utilityman Jackson "Jack" Stevens will take over sound technician duties.

Jack Stevens looks away from the ladies during Sunday's press conference.

Though yet unproven, his mastery of walking, drumming, snacking on music books and seizing microphones suggests a seamless transition into the position.

Stevens: "If I can walk, I can mix sound. It's like riding a bike. If bikes were 18 inches tall."

"Having Mike here to mentor me will be huge," Stevens said. "Not only on the sound board, but also in how to grow a beard."

Liliana Stevens will take over for her brother as cutest-baby-in-church. (Stevens could not be reached for comment.)

Band leader Jennifer Stevens deflected questions about replacing Liliana as baby-in-the-making.