Cubs Ready To Win?

By Jesse Rogers:

The victory window for the Chicago Cubs in 2015 is very wide. Some believe this is a potential 90-win team that's going to the playoffs. Others think the Cubs are a year away and getting to 80 wins would be a satisfactory season. One thing is for sure: After five consecutive fifth-place finishes, the arrow is pointing up for the annual lovable losers. How high can they go? 

Best-case scenario

It's not too hard to find the formula that produces 85-90 wins. Jon Lester anchors an underrated pitching staff -- including a hard-throwing bullpen -- while Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro are helped by young studs like Jorge Soler and reigning minor league player of the year, Kris Bryant. Oh, and new manager Joe Maddon could work his magic as he did in his early days with a young Tampa Bay Rays team. 

Not surprisingly, the Cubs filled some holes in their starting staff this offseason, beginning with Lester. A move to the National League could bolster an already stellar career for the left-hander. Like Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel before him, Lester comes from the American League East, which traditionally has been a good hitter's division. The bottom of NL lineups will be a welcome sight for Lester, as it was for the Arrieta and Hammel. The up-and-coming Kyle Hendricks rounds out the top four. He went 7-2 in his debut last year, showing Greg Maddux-like ability above the shoulders. The Cubs think he can only get better with major league technology at his disposal -- and a changeup that fooled hitters the first time around the league. It's a good starting staff, though it might not be World Series-worthy just yet. 

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Gregg Forwerck/Getty ImagesExpectations will be high for Kris Bryant, 23, whenever he makes his debut for the Cubs.

The bullpen might be the best kept secret for the Cubs, as who really notices relievers on a last-place team? They didn't finish in the cellar because of Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop, Neil Ramirezor Hector Rondon. That group is young enough to expect advancement, but not too green to think they would blow up from the pressure. Rondon was a complete surprise at closer in saving 29 of 33 games -- many of them without much drama in the ninth inning. That hasn't always been the case for the Cubs lately. But the best of the group might be Ramirez. His stuff is as nasty as it comes, and if middle relievers are the norm in the All-Star Game, he has a shot. 

The offense can come together in a big way if Soler and Bryant live up to their prospect rankings. Bryant ranks at the top of the list according to ESPN.com's Keith Law, while Soler is ranked No. 14 in baseball. Either is capable of winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award and will fit nicely in the order anchored by Rizzo. He had a breakout year in 2014 while Castro returned to his previous form. Both made the All-Star team. Dexter Fowler was an under-the-radar pickup for the Cubs, as they ranked near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage last season. Fowler takes the pressure off the offense because now the Cubs need to rely on only two rookies instead of up to four. Once they start getting on base more, the Cubs will be dangerous as their power will play in all conditions, home and on the road. 

Worst-case scenario

Let's start with that offense. No team that made the postseason last year ranked lower than 18th in on-base percentage. In 2013, playoff teams were 17th or better. The Cubs were 28th in OBP last year. If they don't jump into the teens, they have little shot to be effective as they've already proven they can hit the long ball. But solo home runs don't make a complete offense. 

As good as Bryant and Soler appear to be, they're just rookies. There will be adjustment periods throughout the season. And don't forget about talented youngsters Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara. Alcantara struck out 93 times last year, while Baez had 95 strikeouts. And consider this: They played their first games of the season on July 9 and Aug. 5, respectively. That's a lot of swings and misses. The Cubs led all of baseball in strikeouts in 2014. If they don't make a little more contact, take a few more walks and turn the lineup over, it won't matter how well they pitch. There will be some stretches of low-scoring losses and some frustrated hitters. 

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Brian Kersey/Getty ImagesJavier Baez struck out 95 times in 52 games for the Cubs last season.

The other side of the coin on the pitching staff mainly involves lack of résumés. As good as Arrieta was last season, he's never thrown 200 innings in a season. Neither has Hammel. It's possible the Cubs will employ only two pitchers who have thrown 200 or more innings in a season -- Lester, who has done it six times, and Travis Wood, who got to exactly 200 on the final day of the 2013 season. In the same vein, not one reliever on the Cubs -- minus newcomer Jason Motte -- has had major league success for more than just last season. Strop had a good year in 2012, but had his best season in 2014. The others either just got up to the majors or were just breaking out in their new environment, as they were all relative newcomers to the organization. As much as Rondon was dominant in the closer's role last season, there is no guarantee he'll do it again. That's undoubtedly part of the reason Motte was brought in from the St. Louis Cardinals; even he is no sure thing, being one year removed from Tommy John surgery. In short, a case can be made for a productive bullpen as much as it can be made for one that regresses. That's probably the case for most teams. 

If the Cubs don't get past 80 wins, it will most likely be due to an inconsistent offense. Less tangible is the notion that the Cubs have almost never fared well with high expectations. Playoff years in 1984, '89, '98, 2003 and '07 came without much preseason fanfare. Only in 2008 did the Cubs follow a good year with another October of baseball. Even then, they flamed out of the playoffs in three games. The Cubs might simply need a year for all the parts to start to come together; that's when their worst-case scenario should be no less than 82 victories. 

Right now, a win total between 75-80 would not shock close observers, though fans will undoubtedly view it as a big disappointment.