Thursday, February 19, 2015

Preview: Cubs' Relief Pitching



The Cubs quietly discovered bullpen gold during the 2014 season. Rondon, Strop, and Ramirez all demonstrated the tools of the closer trade. Chicago's depth in the back end of the bullpen could be reinforced by leftover starters.

Rondon remains the top dog after an effective debut season. The righty lost most of his 2010 through 2012 seasons to injuries. He was mediocre in 2013. A healthy offseason led to an additional two mph on his fastball and better control.

A 96 mph heater, effective slider, and occasional cutter allowed him to strike out a batter per inning with just 2.13 BB/9. His 2.42 ERA was in line with advanced metrics. A better Cubs team should only help Rondon.

Should anything happen to Rondon, the club has two excellent substitutes in Strop and Ramirez. Strop features a potent sinker-slider mix. Improvements to his walk and whiff rates led to a 2.21 ERA. Advanced statistics largely support the excellent run prevention. Strop has a long history of suspect command, so it's unclear he can maintain his career best 3.69 BB/9.

Ramirez offers a completely different look. The righty was acquired as part of the Matt Garza trade. He features a rising fastball similar to that of Sean Doolittle. He encourages weak contact including an infield fly rate of over 11 percent. Infield flies are basically the same as strikeouts. In 43.2 innings, he posted a 1.44 ERA, 10.92 K/9, and 3.50 BB/9. Be careful using him when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley.

Grimm was also included in the Garza trade. On most teams, the 26-year-old would be a setup candidate. The Cubs bullpen depth will allow them to use Grimm in the middle innings. The right-hander experienced a surge in velocity during his first season as a reliever. A 94 mph fastball along with a slider and curve resulted in more strikeouts. After posting 9.13 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9, there is reason to expect some improvement to his 3.78 ERA.

The picture becomes murkier after Grimm. One of the bullpen jobs is probably Motte's to lose. You may recall Motte from his Cardinals heyday in 2012. Back then, he featured a 97 mph fastball and a cutter. Last season, the 94 mph version of his fastball led to an ugly 4.68 ERA. Advanced stats agreed with the lousy ERA. Motte's job may depend upon recapturing some of his lost velocity.

The Cubs bullpen is very right-handed. Another northpaw, Blake Parker, was in the mix to close last spring. The fly ball pitcher struggled with results (5.14 ERA), but there is no arguing with his peripherals. Over 21 innings, he posted 10.29 K/9 and 1.71 BB/9. With a 90 mph fastball and ground ball rate around 30 percent, the Cubs may be hesitant to hand him innings. He may compete with Motte.

A lack of left-handers could open the door for Zac Rosscup. The southpaw is another fly ball pitcher. He's struggled with command and control including 8.10 BB/9 in a 13 inning audition last season. Over his brief major league career, he's demonstrated large platoon splits. If the Cubs limit him to LOOGY work, they may be pleased with the results.

A few lefty starters could creep into the picture. Travis WoodTsuyoshi Wada, and Felix Doubront are battling for either one or two spots in the rotation. Of those, Doubront looks the part of reliever. He's shown some promise in the starting rotation but has never thrived. Wood and Wada are probably trade candidates if they fail to win a rotation job. They could be used in long relief too.

Last, and possibly least, are Edwin Jackson and Jacob Turner. They'll compete with the above lefties and Kyle Hendricks for rotation jobs. Either could feature as the primary long reliever. Jackson always seems to underperform his peripherals. It feels like Turner has been around forever, but he's only 24. His raw skill set still holds promise.

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