Sunday, March 14, 2010

Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes

This year Jack and I decided to form our own league. This Yahoo! format allows us to design a league and then open it up to anyone in the world to join. I didn't expect much response. We got instant response. Our league is full with three weeks until opening pitch!

As with every year, I do some mock drafting to test how well my player ranking is setting up. Usually 100 points wins the league, and my drafts result in about 105 projected points. But this year I struggled out of the gate. My pitching numbers looked solid but my hitting was too low.

A few notes that solved the problem:

1. In the post-steroid era of baseball, it's extra important this year to grab some power with the first pick. I did a couple simulations with shortstop Hanley Ramirez as my first pick, but he doesn't have the pop that, say, an Albert Pujols or a Prince Fielder has.

2. I have never picked a pure "speed guy" in any draft. These guys steal 40 bases and kill you with their piddly home run and RBI totals.

3. Guard averages religiously. I shoot for batting average of .280, ERA of 3.50 (3.00 for relievers), and 1.20 WHIP. You can get away with maybe one guy who's way off such as a BA of .250.

4. Position scarcity matters. Within my first few picks I usually try to pick up my shortstop and second baseman. This year third basemen seem a little scarce too. The exception is catcher. Although it is a desperately thin position, it's also the most grueling position physically. If you spend a second-round pick on a shortstop you can pretty much bet that he's going to get 500 at-bats (unless he plays for Tony LaRussa, whose fetish for substitution causes me to avoid St. Louis position players like the plague except for Pujols). But catchers need more off-days to rest, do all that squatting and have heavy men barreling into them at top speed multiple times a year.

5. There's a glut of pitching... I've never been able to wait so long and still get high-quality hurlers, including several closers who are sitting on top of the proverbial scrap heap even though they have the spot locked down on their team.

By giving up on guys like Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez I was still able to field a pitching staff worthy of 85 wins and 130 saves, send out a lineup in excess of 200 home runs and 100 stolen bases.

Now comes the waiting game. I'll watch ESPN.com faithfully for injury reports. I'll run a few more mock drafts. And one week before the season I'll launch the draft, allowing enough time to digest the results and make some preseason roster moves to cure any imbalance between hitters and pitchers, or starters and relievers. And away we'll go!

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