About scarcity: There's widespread agreement about which players will be drafted in the first round, and pretty much in the first six rounds. Within that group there are certain categories that, if you don't draft them, will be thin in the remaining rounds so you may end up lagging badly. Here are the ones that I found to be most precious in those opening six picks:
PTS - Obvious enough. I count only seven upper-tier scorers outside the top three rounds. You want to grab at least three of these 30 or so players, so you are gambling on the Ibakas and Leonards of the world who fail to meet this mark in the first three rounds.
AST - There are 25 top-tier butlers in the top six, only ten outside. Grab two in the early going.
FT% - There are about 20 elite percentage shooters. Only six of them are also elite in attempts; only 1 outside the first two rounds. I mark these six super-elites with an asterisk; get at least one of them, and one other elite overall.
REB/BLK - Fairly readily available in later rounds. You want three of each and need at least two of each; given the scarcity of other stats, you can probably afford to wait for at least half of them until later rounds.
STL: There are about 40 in the top tier, and only 8 of them available after the first six. You need three; best to pick one in the first round since the second-rounders are relatively light.
FG% - There are about 30 elite here, but like FT% only 6 superelites with high attempts. Those six are double-asterisked. About half are available after the first six rounds, so securing one in the first six is good enough, especially if you can get a superelite.
3PT - There are 40 in this class, and half outside the top 6 rounds so you can settle for snagging one of these in the first six.
TO - It's hard to evaluate a negative category, so I'll only comment on the first six rounds by identifying the 12 with the lowest turnovers, and marking the lowest six of those (superelites) with a carrot.
Summary prescription by round, then:
1: PTS, STL
2. PTS, FT%
3: PTS, AST
4-6: 3PT, REB/BLK (3), STL (2), FG%, AST
7-13: 3PT (2), REB/BLK (3), FG% (2), FT%, AST
Round 1
By definition it's nearly impossible to find an undervalued performer here. The goal of the first round is to preserve value. Production and durability, important in most rounds, is never more important than here. I once sank a season grabbing Gilbert Arenas and then watching him sit on my bench with the dreaded red "NA" next to his name.
1. Durant* (PTS, REB, AST, BLK, STL, FT%, 3PT)
2. Curry* (PTS, AST, STL, FT%, 3PT)
3. James** (PTS, AST, STL, FG%)
These three are clearly at the front of the pack. It's tempting to nudge James ahead, since he is at least average in every category. A handful of issues though: He's hit his peak; his major free throw total locks you into mediocrity; what will the weight loss do to him?; how will his game change on a new team? Plus I generally have a hard time finding enough treys and assists in my drafts, and Curry's elite there. James has been more durable, and sat out the FIBA tourney while Curry excelled so there is a question of freshness.
4. Harden* (PTS, AST, STL, FT%, 3PT)
5. Davis** (PTS, REB, BLK, STL, FG%)
6. Paul (PTS, AST, STL, FT%)
Another trio in their own class. The super-elite statuses move Paul to the third seed in this group, himself an older, more injury-prone, less-prolific version of Curry.
7. Westbrook (PTS, AST, STL)
8. Wall (PTS, AST, STL)
9. Irving* (PTS, AST, STL, FT%, 3PT)
10. Lillard* (PTS, AST, FT%, 3PT)11. Lowry (AST, STL, 3PT)
12. Griffin** (PTS, REB, FG%)
To make the cut here you had to carry at least two of the four must-grab scarce categories (PTS, AST, STL, FT%)
Rounds 2-3
Bosh (PTS, REB, BLK)
Nowitzki (PTS, FT%, 3PT)
Millsap (PTS, REB, STL)
Love (PTS, REB, 3PT)
Cousins (PTS, REB, BLK, STL)
Anthony (PTS, 3PT)
Ibaka** (REB, BLK, FG%)
Drummond** (REB, BLK, STL, FG%)
Jordan** (REB, BLK, FG%)
Horford (REB, BLK, FG%)
Conley (AST, STL)
Aldridge (PTS, REB)
Jefferson (PTS, REB, BLK)
Dragic (PTS, AST, STL)
Lawson (AST, STL)
Leonard (STL)
Noah (REB, BLK)
Batum (AST, 3PT)
Howard (PTS, REB, BLK, FG%)
Bryant (PTS)
Marc Gasol (REB, BLK)
Teague* (PTS, AST, STL, FT%)
D. Williams (AST, 3PT)
Rondo (AST, STL)
Round 4Holiday (AST, STL)
Walker (PTS, AST, STL)
Oladipo (PTS, AST, STL)
Hayward (AST, STL)
Rubio (AST, STL)
Young (PTS, STL)
Ellis (PTS, AST, STL)
Parsons (3PT)
Gay (PTS, STL)
Vucevic (REB, FG%)
Wade
Duncan (REB, BLK)
Round 5
Favors (REB, BLK, FG%)
Gortat (REB, BLK, FG%)
Korver (FT%, 3PT)
Jennings (AST, STL, 3PT)
Ariza (STL, 3PT)
Butler (STL)Bledsoe (STL)
Noel (BLK, FG%)
Thompson (PTS, 3PT)
Lopez (BLK, FG%)
Rose (AST)
Carter-Williams (PTS, AST, STL)
Beal (PTS, 3PT)
Smith (BLK, STL)
Calderon (AST, FT%, 3PT)
DeRozan (PTS)
Thomas (AST, FT%, 3PT)
Collison (AST, STL, FT%)
West (PTS, REB)
Lee (REB, FG%)
Anderson (FT%, 3PT)
Pau Gasol
Parker (REB)
Matthews (3PT)
Round 7
Lin (AST)
Valanciunas (REB, BLK, FG%)
Stephenson
Faried (REB, FG%)
Hill (3PT)
Chandler (REB, FG%)
Monroe (REB)
Martin (FT%, 3PT)
Knight (AST, 3PT)
Robin Lopez (REB, BLK, FG%)
Chalmers (AST, STL)
Pekovic (REB, FG%)
Round 8
Wiggins (STL)
Hibbert (REB, BLK)
A. Johnson (BLK, FG%)
Redick (FT%, 3PT)
Sanders (REB, BLK)
Parker (AST)
Evans
T. Harris
Sullinger (REB)
R. Jackson (FT%)
Burke (AST, FT%, 3PT)
Beverley
Round 9
Hawes (REB, BLK)
Crawford (FT%, 3PT)
Gallinari
Ginobili
Carroll (STL)
Deng
J. Johnson (3PT)
Frye (3PT)
Afflalo
Dan Green (3PT)
JR Smith (3PT)
Pierce
Round 10
T. Jones (BLK, FG%)
Nash (FT%)
Plumlee (BLK, FG%)
Mark Morris (STL)
Dray Green (STL)
Gordon
McRoberts
J. Green (3PT)
Iguodala (STL)
Randolph (REB, BLK, FG%)
Dalembert
Bargnani (FG%)
Round 11
Varejao (FG%)
Nelson (AST, 3PT)
Olynyk
Gibson (BLK)
Hilario
Ross (3PT)
Bradley
Meeks (FT%, 3PT)
W. Chandler
Tucker
Andersen (BLK, FG%)
Round 12
Ilyasova
Sims
G. Green (3PT)
Gooden (FT%)
Stuckey
Jack (AST)
Allen (FT%, 3PT)
Carter (3PT)
Smart (STL)
Miles
Burks
Boozer (REB)
Round 13
Splitter (FG%)
C. Lee (FT%)
Marion
Stoudemire (FG%)
J. Hill (FG%)
T. Allen
Randle (REB)
Garnett
Asik (REB, BLK, FG%)
Foye (FT%, 3PT)
Jam Johnson
N. Young (3PT)
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